Chicago Dominates the NL Central, Leaving Competitors in the Dust

Picking up our tour through the winter plans for all MLB teams, we now land in the NL Central, where the only monster within might actually be starting to act like it. Kyle Schwarber did something that’s only been done 11 other times in MLB history | Stats That Will Blow Your Mind Chicago Cubs Owner cheapness index: Before last week it was among the higher in the league, happy to rake in the cash from their faceless, colorless village for recent Big 10 grads around the park. But after poaching Craig Counsell, maybe not? Outlook: Blowing up the manager pay scale to punt the eternally wayward and lost David Ross into a landfill to bring in Craig Counsell signals . . . something. On the one hand, it wouldn’t make any sense to bring in one of the best managers in the game for such a price and then just hand him the talent of an 84-win team to turn into an 87 or 88-win one, while wishing that a prospect or two might add just a touch more. On the other hand, it would make complete Ricketts-Cubs sense. It makes even more sense when the division has come back to, and even sank below, the Cubs already. The Brewers just lost their manager, have one of their top starters out for the year and the other likely traded before the season. The Reds and Pirates are unlikely to augment their young cores with the signings they need. The Cardinals . . . whatever. The Cubs can easily just tinker, if that, from here and be Central favorites in 2024. Should they have more ambition, there are obvious holes. First and third base, DH and a starting pitcher or two. A bullpen arm or two wouldn’t hurt either. They will claim that Christopher Morel will fill one of those lineup gaps, but their GM already seems to be ringing the dinner bell for other teams to make him part of a trade package. Morel might have the biggest boom-or-bust bat anywhere and the threat of being a bust far more might make him best used as a trade chip. There also isn’t a position open for the Cubs where Morel wouldn’t be better off having a glove on his head instead of his left hand. The Cubs could use any of the big names. Shohei Ohtani solves two of their problems, though not until 2025 for both. Bringing back Cody Bellinger solves first base and is insurance in case hot young thing Pete Crow-Armstrong can’t hit a fastball above his waist in center. Matt Chapman would give them the best defensive infield in the league while also hitting the ball out of the infield occasionally, which Nick Madrigal can’t. They don’t necessarily need Blake Snell or Aaron Nola, but Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez would fit very snugly behind Justin Steele. The Cubs also have a highly regarded system that should make them a player in any of the rumored big trades on offer, be it Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Tyler Glasnow or whoever else. They’re rumored to be the leader in the clubhouse to offer Rhys Hoskins a pillow contract to prove he’s back to normal after his ACL went poof, which should save them money to go after something else. It feels like the Cubs are getting ready to lord over the NL Central again, given their resources advantage, in a way they should have never really stopped doing. But there’s also a heavy don’t-believe-it-until-you-see-it element, because it’s still the Ricketts family at work here. Ohtani Meter: 7. The Cubs will probably make more noise about chasing Ohtani than they do actually chasing him, but it makes all the sense in the world. He fills a need, he makes them an NL contender with just his bat, given the state of the division the Cubs provide him with games that matter from Year One on. And they also have their own network which everyone hates to sell. Cincinnati Reds Owner cheapness index: Galactic and assholic Outlook: For as much excitement as the Reds generated there for a minute or two with the wealth of kids who came through and at least flashed, they are hardly a sure thing in 2024. Elly De La Cruz struck out all the time and turned into something of a sucking sound at the plate. He won’t stay that way, but when he becomes Alex Rodriguez 2.0 isn’t exactly known or automatic either. Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s K/BB rate is still itchy. Jonathan India actually has middling defensive or offensive value anymore, which is why the Reds aren’t exactly couth about how much they’d like to trade him. An upgrade at DH wouldn’t be remiss. That doesn’t mean they won’t be worth watching, and it’s hardly farfetched that every player under 25 here becomes good and the Great American Ballpark looks like a pinball machine again. So it would be heartening to see Bob Castellini and his dickhead son actually get their thumbs out of their ass and augment that lineup with something more than a rotation that still hinges on the health of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, the very definition of a castle in the sand. If they did stay healthy, along with Andrew Abbot, this would be a scary rotation for a while. But if your aunt had balls and such. The Reds should absolutely be hot on Gray or Rodriguez or Nola or trading for Glasnow (his health problems would fit right in). The free-agent pitchers above at least would take the ball regularly and having more than one starter that could at least get five innings without causing a Three Mile island redux would have seen the Reds hang in the playoff chase a lot longer last year. The Central and National League as a whole is hardly a gauntlet, and it wouldn’t take much for the Reds to put themselves at the business end of it. But they won’t. Ohtani Meter: 1. It’s not hard to see where Ohtani would get the competitive team he wants for years out of the Reds, and they certainly have more than enough money, with some $150 million projected available under the tax threshold. But a $50 million (at least) yearly paycheck would cause the Castellinis to have five simultaneous brain bubbles. Milwaukee Brewers Owner Cheapness index: Cheapness index is kind of high, though weighted for the market, but his overall Tool Index is very high as he just whined and pouted the state and city giving him hundreds of millions for improvements to a ballpark over whatever actual things Wisconsin and Milwaukee might actually need. Outlook: Hard to parse, as we’ll have to wait for them to stop whinging about losing Counsell to “that team 80 miles south.” That might not come until June, when the Cubs have sufficiently dunked on whatever’s left here. Because the Brewers are pretty much already screwed. Brandon Woodruff is going to miss the season with shoulder surgery. Corbin Burnes is almost certain to be traded a year out from free agency. That’s their two best starters gone, leaving Freddy Peralta, Adrien Houser and three guys kidnapped from the Mars Cheese Castle. And the offense isn’t coming to help them. Christian Yelich was able to locate the ball again (or have the pitch signal from center field active again) and produced a level below his MVP-form from a couple years ago. Which was better than the six levels below it that he had been playing at. William Contreras was also a plus-hitter, but that’s it. Sal Frelick came up and walked a lot but no more. The Crew will have a lot riding on Frelick and other kids like Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang, but none of them are sure things. Jackson Chuorio and Seth Rollins Tyler Black may join during the season. But any team relying on all that . . . is the 2023 Reds. But now that Mark Attanasio has gotten his ballpark deal, and now that Burnes and Woodruff have set this team out from a path it will be hard to deviate from, one doesn’t need to squint to see the club taking all of that as an excuse to reset and aim for the seasons beyond 2025. Maybe they look for an upgrade at first, get into the Hoskins rehab derby…